Valuation Metrics United States Stock Market

April 2020
CAPE Ratio:
US stocks are undervalued

S&P500 CAPE Ratio

The chart above shows the Shiller PE ratio for the S&P 500. Price earnings ratio is based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years, known as the Cyclically Adjusted PE (CAPE) Ratio, Shiller PE Ratio, or PE 10. Robert Shiller cautions against using CAPE to time crashes and make short-term trades. Rather, he stresses that CAPE is more useful in predicting longer-term returns.

The average CAPE Ratio from 1880 to April 2020 is 32.3. The current CAPE ratio is below the average.

The chart above shows the CAPE ratio plotted against the S&P500. We can observe that during periods of a high CAPE ratio the returns over the next decade are lacklustre.

Warren Buffett Valuation Indicator

Another way to measure price against value is Warren Buffet's cap to GNP ratio. This is calculated by dividing the total market capitalization (approximated by the Wilshire 5000 index) by the gross national product (GNP). In this case the total market capitalization is the price that investors in aggregate are paying for all shares of all public companies. The GNP is the actual economic output of the country. For the chart above I have used GNP, the same as Warren Buffet, however other versions use GDP instead.

The value of all the equities in the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Full Cap Index currently stands at $25.2 trillion dollars. This represents approximately 136% of the country's GNP.

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